Nick Carr recently posted an article entitled Google, Apple and the future of personal computing in which he speculates about what possible offspring might be produced by Apple and Google’s partnership.

I have no doubts that Apple is working very closely with Google, but their partnership will never produce the product that Nick is describing… Ad-supported applications are not something Apple does. And everything else Nick described sounds awfully like an Apple TV.

Speaking of which, I’m expecting Apple to announce some significant updates to their Apple TV (in the form of downloadable/streamable video content, directly from the unit).

Now that Apple’s released their iTunes Wifi Music Store for the iPhone/Touch, it’s only a matter of time before they reveal a similar store interface for the AppleTV (we’ll call it the iTunes WiFi Video Store). There is also evidence of movie rentals in the works as well.

This is going to require a great deal of bandwidth, and I’m pretty sure Google will be providing the backbone for all of this. My guess is that Google will take a cut of the video purchases, all while continuing to absorb to the consumption data as well. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Google began inserting commercials into the YouTube feeds for a little extra gravy.

Food for thought - Google hasn’t been porting YouTube videos over to the h.264 codec simply to help Apple show off the iPhone.

In my opinion, Apple is looking to disrupt the existing cable television market with an internet-based video distribution system, and the Apple TV will be the primary consumer interface. TV and movie content will be purchasable on the Apple TV directly from the iTunes store, and YouTube will replace the mindless “channel surfing” that is lost when you’re faced with an on-demand viewing experience.

Even the name Apple gave the device is very telling when you think about it. Eventually, it won’t be referred to as AN Apple TV - it’ll simply become “Apple TV”.

“All of your favorite TV shows, movies, YouTube clips and music videos - all available on Apple TV.”

(Article via Mark Ury via Facebook)

So NBC tells Apple to stick it. Apple says good luck with that. And now NBC is going it alone. Didn’t anyone pay attention when the music labels attempted to do this with their highly-restrictive, DRM-plagued, over-priced music stores of yore?

FSJ chimes in and, as usual, he nails it.

So, fair enough. Bring on the big media cluster fuck. Roll out all the different systems that don’t work together. Bring on all the different kinds of software, none of which will work as well as iTunes. Bring on a zillion different user interfaces, a zillion accounts you need to set up, a zillion new usernames and passwords and a list of which services can work on which devices in which format. Right. When you’re good and tired of that, we’ll be here waiting for you.

Just like the iTunes Music Store, the only way online video distribution is going to succeed is if all the studios agree to common prices, consistent DRM (or none! Imagine that?), and centralized availability. I should be able to get every TV show / Movie from one source, and I shouldn’t have to worry if it’ll play on the various devices I own. I want to watch it on my computer, and my TV, and iPhone, and my iPod. And I’m not going to pay for the same content multiple times to have that privilege. Of course this assumes you’ve bought into the Apple platform, but come on… is there anything available that’s actually better?

Now, all that said - this is an interesting play by NBC, simply because it appears to be a last-ditch effort to hold on to their old business model. At the moment, customers are currently accustom to paying nothing for their television content. Yes, I recognize that you’re paying the cable company, but you’re not paying for the video content itself. Those costs are subsidized by commercials you’re forced to watch.

Give away the content for free online; force viewers to watch commercials; maintain traditional revenue channels; screw Apple and retain control.

I’m sure that sounded good in the boardroom, but it won’t work. Just like the old music stores, DRM, price inconsistencies, and technical complications are all going to get in the way and kill the experience. It’ll be too complicated for the masses, and it’ll eventually die.

I give them 8 months before they’ve got all their content back on iTunes, and 12-24 months before they abandon this new venture altogether.

Now, if only Apple would allow me to download video content directly from the Apple TV. Methinks that, just like the iPod Touch/iPhone there’ll be a iTunes WiFi Music Store available in an update soon.

Or so I hope.

Continuing on my television kick, I thought I’d follow up with a quick review of Studio 60 On The Sunset Strip, one the shows I’ve started watching.

This one took me by surprise actually, but I have to admit - this could be one of the best shows to start this season. It follows the cast, crew and executives of the television program “Studio 60” - a program clearly inspired by Saturday Night Live. It gives us a glimpse into the world of Hollywood, and shows us what it takes to run a weekly live-air television show. It’s incredibly well written, directed and acted. In fact, I can’t think of a single role that “Amanda Peet” has been in that I actually enjoyed, but she is perfectly cast as Jordan McDeere. Similarly, the chemistry between Bradley Whitford & Matthew Perry is remarkable.

Intelligent, political and humorous, Studio 60 should be a hit - but unfortunately isn’t faring all that well in the ratings, which is unfortunate because it deserves far more attention. Again, I can’t speak highly enough of this program, and I really hope it survives the cut.

And so it begins… the great television transition. After all the talk, I’ve decided to finally bite the bullet and drop my cable services in favor of downloaded television. However, before I can fully commit I need the new setup to meet 2 simple criteria: Can I consume the same content as before, and will my wife be able to use it on her own?

On the surface, it seems doable. The technology is (almost) there, the content is available (in one way or another), and the economics (somewhat) work. This is clearly premature, but I dove in headfirst and I picked up a Mac Mini last night. After a rather straight forward installation (and a few wasted hours of pointless troubleshooting), I’ve got it hooked up and everything seems to be working as expected. There are some issues to discuss, but first let’s take a look at the setup.

The Hardware

In the living room, I’ve got a rather straight forward setup:

• TV: Sony KV-36HS510
• Receiver: Sony HTDDW900
• Mac Mini: 1.66GHz Intel Core Duo

Pretty simply really. I ditched my DVD player as it’s duties will be offloaded to the Mini (and I may rip the DVDs and store them remotely… but that’ll wait for another day). I kept the digital cable box connected should I still need it, but I’m hoping to keep it turned off completely. If it stays off for a month, it’s gone.

Understanding that the content isn’t HD (or 5.1 for that matter) this is clearly overkill, but I’ve kept everything digital. Video is displayed over HDMI, and audio via TOSLINK. Here’s to hoping that Apple starts releasing higher-quality content sometime in the foreseeable future.

So where is all of this newfangled, downloaded content actually coming from? For the most part, the iTunes Store. I’ve been downloading content from iTunes on my G5, and storing everything on an external 1.2TB, FW800 LaCie Bigger Disk Extreme. All of the video and music is cataloged in iTunes, and is shared wirelessly throughout the house. That said, I could have easily hooked the external drive up to the Mini downstairs, and wirelessly connected to it from upstairs (there are some complications with this, but I may do just it… for reasons which will become clear below).

A few notes:

1. Being that the Mini and the TV are both DVI, I needed a few DVI > HDMI cables to interface with the receiver. Stay away from the standard retailers (Best Buy, Circuit City, FutureShop, etc.) as the prices are ridiculous. Hit up Google - there are some good deals to be found.
2. The receiver has standard TOSLINK inputs, so I needed a 3.5mm adaptor for the Mini… which I picked up at Active Surplus for $0.50.
3. The TV didn’t originally like the default resolution the Mini was serving up - everything was cutoff around the edges (the dock, the menubar, etc), and there was a slight flicker in the picture. After a few hours of research, fussing with DisplayConfigX to set the correct resolution/refresh rate (and come up short of course), I eventually realized that there was a simple checkbox under “options” in the display preferences which turned off the overscan. Problem solved.
4. With the optical audio, the Mini locks the sound volume… which in turn renders the volume keys on the Apple Remote completely useless. I have a Harmon Kardon TC30 which is an incredibly robust universal remote, but for some reason it’s not jiving with the Mini at the moment, and will require some further persuasion.

Issues & Observations

Inability to purchase shows directly from Front Row

This is probably the biggest “experience” issue so far. The fact that I need to go to my computer, queue up downloads and then go back to my TV is almost the deal breaker. I luckily have enough content to tide me over for the time being, but I can see this becoming an even greater issue soon… because my wife certainly won’t be doing this on her own.

That said, if you venture into the Movie Trailers section in Front Row, it quickly becomes clear that Apple’s moving to address this. To watch a movie trailer, you simply select the movie poster from the list (which are downloaded when you first enter the section). Doing so brings up a surprisingly decent fullscreen video, which begins playing almost immediately. There’s a slight buffer that occurs, but it’s marginal. Full-length shows streamed by many people at once will put a HUGE strain on Apple’s ability to deliver content, but it at least looks to be technically possible. I hope their new data center is up to the task.

Wireless bottleneck

Put simply, 802.11g is not up to the task. While you can get video to stream, it’s clear there isn’t enough bandwidth to fully deliver the goods. At the moment, your best bet is to connect an external drive to the Mini, or run some CAT5 and be done with it. However, if the rumors are true, the iTV will bring 802.11n, and the world will be a better place because of it.

Inconsistent video quality & lack of 5.1 surround sound

I’ve been noticing there’s a lot of inconsistencies between the various shows I’ve downloaded. Aspect ratio (4:3 vs 16:9), compression quality, and volume level are the biggest issues… beyond the actual 640×480 resolution that is. And lest we forget the low quality audio that accompanies the video. Guys, seriously, the video AND audio quality needs to improve… the current quality doesn’t hold a candle to HDTV. It’s not even close.

Insufficient (legal) content

At the moment, Apple simply doesn’t have enough content to completely replace the offerings available through traditional channels. The shortcomings can obviously be supplemented by Bit Torrent, but again - that adds a whole level of complexity to the mix, not to mention the questionable legality. While the number of programs are being added to each week, there simply isn’t enough yet. And where the hell is HBO already?

Front Row doesn’t automatically refresh content

I haven’t attempted to see if there’s a work around for this yet, and it may be a byproduct of wireless connecting to a shared library, but Front Row doesn’t seem to automatically update itself when new content is added. So for the time being, you need to step back to the main Front Row menu, and then navigate back to the shared library when you’ve added new content.

Lack of Meta Data in Front Row

This is minor to some degree, but I do believe it’s an incredible oversight. When you select a show, you have nothing to go by except the name of that particular show. If you’re not wirelessly connected, you do get a video preview of the show, but I still don’t think that’s enough. How about a text description, or some indication if I’ve already watched it?

What’s new, what’s old, and what might I like?

This is something that I think Apple needs to lift directly from TiVo. When I start up Front Row, it should tell me what’s been recently downloaded and/or what hasn’t been watched yet. Similarly, it should offer up recommendations for me to checkout and potentially purchase. Admittedly however, this is functionality that should (will?) be rolled out in conjunction with the ability to access the iTunes Store directly from Front Row.

Final Thought

This technology is clearly premature, and the size of the market has yet to be determined, but in the end I feel this is the future of television and I’m getting onboard. Now let’s hope I can get my TC30 universal remote working… or my wife will put a stop to all this nonsense, and I’ll be selling one slightly-used Mac Mini on Ebay soon.

I started this as a response to Geoff’s comment from my previous post, but it ballooned into a post unto itself.

Geoff Wrote: - “Good points, all of them. However, even Job’s himself stated this isn’t meant to take over as a single source of acquisition/consumption. I know I’ll still use my dvd player, satellite, YouTube and Torrents as video sources. But there are times when I want to watch something that simply isn’t available through those means. It’s at that moment when I’ll turn to the itunes store. I’m sure that I’ll enjoy the experience and be okay with the cost. I also expect that the experience will be so pleasant that I’ll occasionally turn to it even when other means are available - likely because it will be easier. I’m currently consuming about 90% of my media through non-traditional means. To me, all I want is a REALLY basic cable package, one that doesn’t cost $40/month. I’d love to be able to buy per channel. I still have a need to consume live news/events, but that’s about it.”

True. But Jobs also stated that Apple had no interest in making a flash-based mp3 player, or an iPod that plays video… Hell, he even said I don’t think the convergence of television and computer is going to happen.

For Apple to succeed, they need to play nice with the existing players, all while slowly disrupting the market until it’s too late for the competition to react. Similarly, I don’t think they want to reveal all their cards yet, for fear of other competitors (read: Microsoft) getting involved to soon. They caught everyone off-guard with the iPod + iTunes Store, and I think they’re doing it again with the iTV + iTunes store. And the irony is that they’ve used the iPod as the decoy.

Take a step back, and look how long TV shows have been available on the iTunes store. If I’m not mistaken, it’s been about a year now. While everyone took notice of it, no one saw it as a treat as the only suitable place to consume this video was on an iPod. Take a look now - Apple’s got thousands of new AND old television content, and it’s being updated quite frequently. When the pieces finally come together, I think it’ll be too late for the competition (be it the traditional cable companies, or Microsoft) to react.

For video, the critical missing piece is iTV, because at the moment, there’s no easy way to consume video from your television. Sure, you can string together a Mac Mini, or any number of existing technologies… but the experience is still flawed. For starters, the solution isn’t even remotely elegant, and secondly you cannot immediately acquire content, unless you go to your computer and queue it up for download. With iTV, I believe Apple will seamlessly tie the iTunes store with your television, and you’ll be able to download and purchase new content without leaving your couch.

If you look within Front Row, you can clearly see the signs of this… Movie Trailers is the clearest example - it seamlessly connects with Apple, serves up the movie posters and streams in the video. Add the ability to purchase that video with a single click, and you’re good to go.

Similarly, the iTV is without any sort of DVR functionality. If Apple was planning to have their wireless box cohabitate with traditional sources, I would assume they’d want to integrate everything together for a truly integrated experience.

But I don’t believe that’s the plan. It’s not “Apple” enough… it’s too clunky and complicated. And there are other players in that market, and none of them have been even remotely successful. No, Apple’s plan is to build another fully-integrated vertical, where it can control the experience from top to bottom. Purchase your content directly from Apple, with it stored in one central location, accessible from many devices… be it your iMac, Mac Book, stereo, TV and of course, your iPod.

Regardless of what Jobs has stated, I think Apple’s video strategy will be strikingly similar to their music strategy; Offer as much content as possible (the “long tail” if you wish…), available for immediate download at a reasonable price. The overall quality will be sacrificed for convenience (no HDTV, at least for the time being), but it’ll be good enough for Joe Average.

However, there are still some challenges ahead.

1. Bandwidth will play a major role in this strategy. I’m not sure if anyone’s noticed, but Apple recently purchased a massive data centre… one has to wonder what that was for.
2. Similarly, broadband will be critical, and one has to hope that ISPs don’t retaliate against the “mass downloading” by imposing strict download caps, or crippling the technology as they have with Bit Torrent.
3. Live TV will be a huge challenge, and one has to stop and wonder how they’ll deal with it. Because people won’t stand for watching a delayed feed of the Super Bowl.
4. Pricing is still an issue, and will have to come down for mass-adoption of this platform.
5. Storage capacity will be another issue for the general public. For instance, season 1 of Prison Break weighs in at 10GB. At that rate, people will be running out of space fast and furious. Luckily external drives are relatively cheap (and if Apple is smart, they’ll be releasing some sort of “lite” version of their XServe Raid system.)

With Apple’s recent iTV pre-announcement it’s clear that they’re looking to reproduce the success they’ve had with the iPod, and do for video what they did for music. However, what I had hoped would usher in true on-demand television is starting to look like nothing more than a jukebox for movies.

Ok, first things first. Clearly there is a market for movie downloads, and I’m sure Apple will make a profit doing so. However, what originally got me excited about iTV was the idea of ditching my cable company entirely and replacing it a vast library of television and movie content, available on-demand, over the internet. And while that idea still excites me, I don’t think Apple will be delivering on it. At least not out of the gate.

One Plus One Still Equals Two.

In theory the economics could work, but in reality they don’t. With the average monthly cost of cable at $41.17, and the average monthly consumption at 82.6 hours, it becomes clear that the numbers won’t add up. Assuming each show is 45 minutes long (1 hour minus the commercials), the average person would watch 110 downloaded episodes a month (82.6 hours * 60 minutes / 45 minutes = 110 downloads). At $1.99 a pop (and if my math is correct), that’s just shy of $220 a month. And when you bake 30 minute shows into the equation, the monthly costs will skew even higher.

Now, I suppose you can argue that without commercials, you’re actually watching more TV in that 82.6 hours a month, but not $180 more. Additionally, options like Multi-Pass do make the monthly expenditure a bit more palatable, but I’m not sure it’s enough.

If you’re a casual television viewer (such as myself), the number may add up… but unless you acquire content through illicit sources (aka BitTorrent), I can’t see Joe Average moving over anytime soon. I honestly hope more shows adopt the Multi-Pass model and offer multiple downloads for a discount. Because with the current pricing model, I don’t see how iTV will be a viable alternative for your current cable offerings.

You’ll be able to skip the trip to Wal-Mart for your next Pixar movie, but don’t expect to ditch the dish any time soon.

For those who weren’t following along, Apple had another one of their special events yesterday. And as expected, this Apple love-in brought us another string of new product and service announcements.

iPods got a little love, Nano’s are officially 2nd generation (and look a lot like the old iPod Mini), and the Shuffle is now “impossibly small” (am I the only one who thinks it’s the Shuffle that should be called the Nano?). Curiously, we didn’t see the “real” iPod video that’s been tearing up the rumor sites for months now, but I expect it’ll make an appearance at some point… it’s just a matter of time. And what about the iPhone?

iTunes got a lotta’ love with the release of version 7. I’m still on the fence regarding the UI - Apple loves to change shit for the change sake. Why did they change the scrollbars and buttons? Is this what get to expect in OSX 10.5? Anyway, there’s some fluff and some substance, but it’s looking good nonetheless. Of particular interest however, were the changes made to the iTunes Music Store. Officially re-branded, the iTunes Store is now selling the full spectrum of media. Music, TV shows, games (iPod only) and now movies. And with a move completely out of character, they “pre-announced” a new piece of hardware that will tie the whole package together (as an aside, how does someone actually go about pre-announcing something… aren’t you making an announcement when you pre-announce something?).

iTV (tentative codename at this point) is a small device that plugs into your TV and wireless connects it with your computer. It looks like a flattened Mac Mini, and it’s UI looks a lot like Front Row.

Finally, the remaining pieces of Apple’s digital hub strategy are falling into place.

Now, I want to take a moment and really put this into perspective. In the not-too-distant future, you’ll be able to all but abandon your cable services entirely. Imagine the ability to have a central library of television and movie content, accessible from all TVs in your house. DVDs all ripped and stored in a central location. TV shows automatically downloaded off the internet, and stored in the same place. And instead of a piece-of-shit cable box, you’ll have a slick little device that serves it all up for your big-screen TV.

Now, this technology already exists. If you were so inclined, you could string together a similar system and have it working quite well. However, that’s not Apple’s goal here. When you connect the dots (iTunes Store + iPod + Mac + iTV), it becomes quite clear that Apple’s looking to completely displace the traditional cable companies with an entirely new content distribution system. They’ll sell you the hardware/software to take advantage of this system, but their endgame is the delivery method.

As Apple announced, their Music Store has a 74%+ market share in the US, and they are officially in the top 5 of legal music retailers. That’s actually a very import note - for the first time, a store that sells nothing but digital content is now in the top 5. And with the TV+Movie content, Apple’s looking to repeat that success. They want to own the content delivery system to your living room, with your computer as the central hub.

However, there are still a few outstanding questions I have:

1. Can I browse and download content directly from iTV?
2. Can I rip my DVDs and have them accessible from iTV?
3. What if I want/need to have local TV? Is there anyway to interface with traditional cable?
4. Will iTV play video content acquired from other sources?
5. How much bandwidth is eaten up with the wireless streaming? Will there be enough to still surf wirelessly?
6. Can iTV replace my existing cable service?

The last question is a big one. One has to stop and wonder how the cable and satellite companies are reacting to this. Because if it wasn’t clear when Apple started selling TV shows via the ITMS, this is clearly a shot across the bow. These companies are spending millions attempting to deploy HD services, and it looks as if these investments could quickly become antiquated.

Whatever the case I’m definitely looking forward to it’s release in Q1 2007. And for the record, I welcome our Apple overlords with open arms, and will be disposing of my Rogers HDTV PVR piece-of-shit set-top box the second iTV becomes available.

Let me cut right to the chase here. I love the iTunes Music Store. Plain and simple.

I’ve always enjoyed listening to music, but have almost always hated what I hear on the radio. Sure, there are some gems to be had, but the overwhelming majority of regular-play radio is simply tepid. And that may actually be a compliment to some degree.

Spending an inordinate amount of money on music isn’t foreign to me. Sure, I took advantage of Napster when it wasn’t commercial, and I’ve been known to use Bit Torrent to acquire albums every now and again. But the reality is, with the iTunes Music Store, I have all I need. I haven’t purchased a CD, nor have I illicitly acquired music in years. I just don’t see the need to anymore.

I suppose it’s my MTV-generation lack of attention, but I’m constantly on the lookout for new music. That’s not to say I don’t have some staples in library, but I simply can’t have enough. And when I want it, I want it immediately. Who can be bothered to actually walk to HMV, or seek out the album on some torrent site? Not I. I need instant gratification. And that’s definitely part of the ITMS’s secret sauce. Almost everything you could want is available for immediate download for $0.99 a song. It’s almost too easy. The press of one button is all it takes.

Sure, the music is locked up with DRM, but I haven’t had a problem with it. The restrictions are liberal enough not to get in the way. I can’t share my music with others, but I suppose that’s the point, right? And being that I’m always looking for new music, I wish iTunes had better recommendation features. Apple should license the Pandora technology and start serving up some intelligent recommendations. I have a feeling my music consumption would continue to increase with the addition of such a feature.

So, what I am listening to these days?

I find myself listening more and more to “indy” music. Of course that term is a gross generalization, as most popular “indy” bands are signed to a major label and aren’t actually independent, but that really doesn’t matter. It’s the indy sound I like. Raw, ragged, rough-around-the-edge music, that isn’t over produced and inspired more by emotion and less by commercial gain. I’m guessing it’s only a matter of time until it becomes rot with commercialism, but until then, my iPod will be on repeat.